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כלכלה בזמן מלחמה: האם כדאי לעשות שינוי בהרכב התיק?

אוקטובר 26, 2023
14:16

מה מצב הבורסה? כדאי לעשות שינוי בהרכב התיק בגלל המלחמה?

בימים אלה, בהם כולנו צמודים לחדשות, עולות גם מחשבות כלכליות ואיתן החשש מירידות חדות בשוק ההון כתוצאה מהמלחמה, כאלה שעלולות לפגוע בתוכניות הפנסיה והחיסכון שלנו.

האם באמת יש סיבה לחשש והאם צריך לעשות משהו מהיר שיגן על הכסף שלנו? הניסיון מלמד שהתשובה לשתי השאלות היא לא.

ראשית, חלק גדול (כ-70% מההשקעה במניות) מושקע בחו"ל ושם ההשפעה של המלחמה המקומית אצלנו וכל עוד תישאר כאן תהיה קטנה יחסית. שנית, ההיסטוריה מלמדת שאחרי מלחמות, בטווח די מהיר של חודשים, השוק עובר לעליות ומוחק את כל הירידות.

אז מה צריך לעשות עכשיו?

בדרך כלל (כמובן שיש מקרים ספציפיים שצריך לבחון ברמה אישית) רצוי לא לעשות דבר. קודם כל כי לעולם לא נדע לתזמן את סיום המלחמה וסביר ששינוי עכשיו יגרום לנו לפספס את העליות בעתיד.

שנית, התפיסה היא ששוק ההון צופה פני עתיד ומצב הבורסה כבר משקף את מה שצפוי בהמשך המלחמה. כך שאם לא תתרחש קטסטרופה שלא צפינו, הירידות ייבלמו ובהמשך יעברו לעליות שיתחזקו לקראת או לאחר סיום המלחמה.

אז מי שלא זקוק לכספים בטווח הקצר, כנראה שלפחות את החשש הזה יכול להסיר. מי שמרגיש שהוא רוצה להתייעץ ברמה האישית, נשמח לייעץ.

אנא השאירו פרטים ונחזור אליכם בהקדם:

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